𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐛𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟒?

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2023 is the hottest year recorded on the planet. However, the ongoing influence of the El Nino phenomenon in the first half of 2024 could lead to new record temperatures. The climate in 2024 is expected to be harsher than in 2023.

Màn hình kỹ thuật số hiển thị nhiệt độ 45°C  bên ngoài một hiệu thuốc ở Sardinia, Italy, vào tháng 7 năm 2023 (Ảnh: Bloomberg)

A new study published on February 29, 2024, in the journal Scientific Reports shows that there is a 90% chance that the average global surface temperature will reach a record high this year (as of June 2024).

Some places will be hotter than others, particularly in certain regions of Asia. The heat has layered effects, such as increasing the risk of drought and wildfires.

To predict what will happen in 2024, Professor Deliang Chen and his colleagues have modeled two possible scenarios: one is the moderate-level impact of El Niño and the other is the strong-level impact of El Niño.

With a moderate El Niño phenomenon, the Bay of Bengal and the Philippines are likely to be the most heavily affected areas this year. The Philippines, a tropical archipelago in the Pacific, is facing ongoing drought for the next few months.

In the Bay of Bengal, bordering several countries in South and Southeast Asia, El Niño often leads to marine heatwaves that can kill coral reefs, which nearby communities rely on for their livelihoods and provide a buffer against tropical storms..

A report from the United Nations states that extreme weather has claimed the lives of 2 million people and caused economic damage of $4.3 trillion in the past half-century. Without solutions to curb global temperature rise, long-term climate changes are estimated to cause 3.4 million deaths each year by the end of this century.

Các nhà nghiên cứu đã lập mô hình hai kịch bản có thể xảy ra dưới tác động ở mức vừa phải và mức mạnh của hiện tượng El Nino. (Ảnh: The Verge)

The United Nations estimates that around 1.84 billion people worldwide were affected by drought in 2022 and 2023, mostly in low- and middle-income countries.

In 2024, along with the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, the heat and drought conditions are expected to worsen even in wealthy countries. This not only threatens to disrupt people's lives and upset ecosystems but also has a significant impact on food production and business activities.

Therefore, as stated in the message delivered at the beginning of the new year, the head of the United Nations believes that 2024 will be a year to rebuild trust and restore hope, working together to address urgent global issues, including climate change, with the common goal of ensuring a sustainable future for the entire planet.